Tanker shortage strands Americas heavy crude: freight to Asia now runs ~$40/bbl, about 40% of a $100 barrel

Analysts Andrew

Published October 12, 2026

Source Reuters, via BNN Bloomberg (13 Oct 2026); Argus Media

A laden crude oil tanker sailing out of Port Arthur, Texas, on the US Gulf CoastPhoto: Quintin Soloviev, CC0, via Wikimedia Commons

Summary

Heavy crude is piling up in North and South America because tanker freight has become too expensive to ship it east. Refiners in Asia and Europe face shortages, and benchmark oil stays above $100 a barrel. The cause is a global tanker shortage: ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman, a workaround for the Hormuz crisis, are tying up vessels worldwide.

Key numbers

VLCC freight, Americas → Asia: $80M+
Freight to Asia per barrel: ~$40/bbl
Western Canada Select (8 Oct): $74/bbl
US refinery utilization: 93.5%

EXHIBIT 1Supertanker freight

Route	Now (early Oct)	Before Iran war
US Gulf Coast → Europe	$46M ($24.50/bbl)	$6.5M ($4/bbl)
Americas → Asia	$80M+ (~$40/bbl)	~$10–15M (Jan 2026)

US Gulf Coast → Asia supertanker cost has more than quintupled since February.

EXHIBIT 2Stranded crude prices

8 Oct 2026, $/bbl, excluding shipping

Western Canada Select

$74.00

Venezuelan crude

$74.50

Ecuador Oriente

$76.00

Colombia Vasconia

$84.00

$100 benchmark

Canadian, Colombian and Ecuadorian grades each fell $10+/bbl to six-week lows. Freight erases the discount for Asian buyers.

Why the barrels are stuck

Too few ships: ship-to-ship transfers near Hormuz tie up tankers, so fewer are available on other routes.
More supply: Venezuelan exports surged after the US captured Maduro in January, Canadian output is at a record, and the US has released 130M+ barrels from its emergency reserve.
US refiners maxed out: runs near 93.5% capacity chasing record diesel prices; cokers that process heavy crude are near full use.

Sectors impacted

Tanker owners
Record freight rates on scarce supertankers
Winner
Americas producers
Wider discounts; barrels going into storage
Loser
Asian & European refiners
Short on heavy crude; high delivered cost
Loser
US Gulf Coast refiners
Cheap feedstock, but no spare capacity
Mixed
Diesel users
Trucking and farming face soaring US diesel
Loser

Educational research, not investment advice. Prepared by student analysts of the Commodities and Shipping Club at Northeastern University from the sources cited above.

Tanker shortage strands Americas heavy crude: freight to Asia now runs ~$40/bbl, about 40% of a $100 barrel

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