CASC Research · Weekly
Analyst Briefs
Week of October 12
One page per story, written by desk analysts and reviewed by desk heads. Each brief covers the numbers, the exhibits and what it means for the market.
Featured · 01 · Energy Desk
October 12, 2026
Tanker shortage strands Americas heavy crude: freight to Asia now runs ~$40/bbl, about 40% of a $100 barrel
Heavy crude is piling up in North and South America because tanker freight has become too expensive to ship it east. Refiners in Asia and Europe face shortages, and benchmark oil stays above $100 a barrel. The cause is a global tanker shortage: ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman, a workaround for the Hormuz crisis, are tying up vessels worldwide.
- VLCC freight, Americas → Asia
- $80M+
- Freight to Asia per barrel
- ~$40/bbl
- Western Canada Select (8 Oct)
- $74/bbl
- US refinery utilization
- 93.5%
VLCC freight, Americas → Asia
vs. ~$10–15M at start of 2026
Freight to Asia per barrel
~40% of a $100 barrel
Western Canada Select (8 Oct)
ex-shipping, vs. $100+ benchmark
US refinery utilization
highest in 28 years
Analysts: Andrew
4 briefs · 1 issue
The library
01 · Energy Desk
Tanker shortage strands Americas heavy crude: freight to Asia now runs ~$40/bbl, about 40% of a $100 barrel
$80M+
VLCC freight, Americas → Asia
Andrew
04 · Shipping Desk
Trafigura lists its VLCC fleet as Volare Shipping, raising ~$500M at a $1.2B valuation near the top of the tanker cycle
~$500M
Gross private placement
Theo Efstathiou, George Spyrou
04 · Shipping Desk
Container reliability slides to 27% on time in September, with Asia–Europe at just 4% and a 9.9-day average delay
27%
Global on-time arrivals, Sep
Kai, Vihaan
04 · Shipping Desk
South Korea completes its first commercial Arctic round trip to Europe, but sails well short of its cargo target
50 days
Busan round trip
Emily, Brittany
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